United States of Europe

What Germany failed to achieve with krieg, they (will) achieve with being frugal.

By today (19 November 2011) The government debt crisis in europe had went on for months.

Bringing a drama of continuous cycle of economies being at the brink of ruin, emergency solution being put forth, then the same to be found inadequate or in peril.

But throughout this drama cause by “southern european spending more than what they earn and when bankrupt, ask prudent germans to transfer their savings to the southerners”, there’s an under current of it will all belong to Germany.

As a famous CEO once said “if you cannot control your destiny, someone else will”

As weeks pass by, this undercurrent became more visible. Bolder language were used. From the inherent unfairness of Germans having to pay for someone else’ profligacy, to needed concession from sick countries and private creditors if a rescue program to be made, to how economies joining the euro zone might need to relent some degree of fiscal authority, and finally,  this article in the economist (Nov 19th 2011)
http://www.economist.com/node/21538701

“The Germans are right to argue that, if euro-zone countries want to save their currency, they must surrender much economic sovereignty. But the argument would be more persuasive if, in return, countries knew they would get more mutual protection. This could be a real step to political union. If it is not what Mrs Merkel wants—and it is unclear how many German voters would support it—then she might have to abandon her rhetoric and start planning how to manage a euro break-up instead.”

The problems brought forth by monetary union, requires solution that only fiscal union can achieve, which will be only possible if, or instead having the implication that, some political union is required.

We are, ladies and gentlemen, quite possibly witnessing the birth of the United States of Europe.

An unwanted, but inevitable love child that was conceived in 1992

And no matter how the parties involved would deny this love child, the time has come to decide as to whether to give birth to this United States of Europe (which full mature form might take quite some time) or to kill the fetus called Euro.

I wonder what the flag will look like..

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Evolution of Values – November 2011

Integrity: lowers mental and monetary cost of doing business. When I sense that I’m dealing with people with doubtful integrity, I have to enter a state of high alert and potential risk analysis, while smiling, this is mentally taxing. I then have to document the potential risk and its contingencies. This means time and cost. I rather deal with parties that shows Integrity.

Intelligence: allows robust analysis to be made, assumptions to be recognize and quality conclusions to be made. There’s simply no denying this, people cannot move beyond the limits of their intelligence. People who are not willing to train their intelligence recognize fewer assumptions, make silly analysis, do analysis in a lazy manner, and come up with inferior conclusions. A good part of intelligence is life’s draw when you were conceive, another part is training. Force your brain to recognize assumptions, to be diligent and thorough in analysis. Less than intelligent people simply cannot follow the analysis path of intelligent people, it’s as foreign to them as baseball to a fish. I rather deal with intelligent people.

Imagination: breakthrough, innovations. A degree of critical thinking, self criticism, humor, and a pinch of anarchy is needed in Imagination. To be able to observe what “box” where are in and how to shape this or another box that will allow us to achieve competitive advantage. People with no imagination are good to be administrators. Imaginators are fish that can recognize, see, understand, that they are in water; and then, have the balls to say “hmm…what if we don’t live in water”. People with no imagination impedes innovation, their mind simply cannot imagine. I rather deal with imaginative people.

Passion for Excellence: I just have to do the best with the job at hand. Can come from Understanding that life is finite resource, thus decide to maximize this finite resource by doing the best. Takes times to develop. Sometimes its hard to differentiate people with lack of passion for excellence with people with lack of intelligence or imagination. I find that many Indonesians waste their intelligence (and life) by not having a passion for excellence. Sub-par work, unwilling to think through something are manifestations of lack of passion for excellence. LEADERS job is to build this passion for excellence in their team.

Agape: very hard. this is what maturity looks like. Further description is below.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1_Corinthians_13

According to the author, agape:

  • (verse 4)
    • is long suffering (i.e. tolerant, patient)
    • is kind
    • is free of jealousy, envy and pride
  • (verse 5)
    • does not display unseemly behavior
    • is unselfish
    • is not touchy, fretful or resentful
    • takes no account of the evil done to it [outwardly ignores a suffered wrong]
  • (verse 6)
    • hates evil
    • is associated with honesty
  • (verse 7)
    • protects
    • trusts [implying faith in God and trusting in righteousness]
    • hopes
    • perseveres
  • (verse 8 )
    • triumphs
  • (verse 13)
    • is greater than either faith or hope

Stop the War on Workers. Rise of the Proletariat?

Stop the War on Workers

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_economic_thought

“People are therefore alienated from both the fruits of production and the means to realise their potential, psychologically, by their oppressed position in the labour market. But the tale told alongside exploitation and alienation is one of capital accumulation and economic growth. Employers are constantly under pressure from market competition to drive their workers harder, and at the limits invest in labour displacing technology (e.g. an assembly line packer for a robot). This raises profits and expands growth, but for the sole benefit of those who have private property in these means of production. The working classes meanwhile face progressive immiseration, having had the product of their labour exploited from them, having been alienated from the tools of production. And having been fired from their jobs for machines, they end unemployed. Marx believed that

a reserve army of the unemployed would grow and grow,

fuelling a downward pressure on wages as desperate people accept work for less. But this would produce a deficit of demand as the people’s power to purchase products lagged. There would be a glut in unsold products, production would be cut back, profits decline until capital accumulation halts in an economic depression. When the glut clears, the economy again starts to boom before the next cyclical bust begins. With every boom and bust, with every capitalist crisis, thought Marx, tension and conflict between the increasingly polarised classes of capitalists and workers heightens. Moreover smaller firms are being gobbled by larger ones in every business cycle, as power is concentrated in the hands of the few and away from the many. Ultimately, led by the Communist party, Marx envisaged a revolution and the creation of a classless society. How this may work, Marx never suggested. His primary contribution was not in a blue print for how society would be, but a criticism of what he saw it was.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_economic_thought

Clearly, the Communist Party had failed  But it is also clear that with each cycle of boom and bust, their amplitude widens, for when in a bust, in an a effort to maintain valuations to their bubbled assets, man launched more creative financial engineering. Preventing full impairment of bubbled assets and with it, acknowledgement of its underlying value, while delivering growth.

We had it long coming, and this will continue, just be smart and make sure you get yourself a chair when the next round of music ends.

Or is that the only way?

Is there an alternative blueprint?

 

The Pattern of Economic Consolidation – How A State’s Economy Steadily Moves Toward Saturation and The Imperative for an Individual to Position Himself and His Decendants to be in The Right Class

If we visited Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Korea, Hongkong, France, and Germany, we could see a clear Pattern of Economic Consolidation in state economies.

This consolidation is similar to if you take a glass of muddy water, you shake it, and then slowly the mud consolidates the bottom of the glass.

And as the mud consolidates, you can see layers of differing density of mud within that body of water.

You have the almost clear part at the top of the glass; then slightly darker areas that still accepts some light; darker areas that are brown in color; and the really dense part where mud can start be notice as such and not just floating sands.

These consolidation is constant in peace and sane period. As long as the country residents has some degree of economic freedom, human greed will guarantee economic consolidation.

Yet even when a country is plunged into war, the consolidation that had happened in the past can be resumed with a faster pace. Let’s take Germany, although Germany’s economy is more or destroyed after world war II, the country and its citizen has many years of individual and collective industrial and economic skill and knowledge on which it can build on.

The consolidation that had taken part before the war, is quickly resumed after the war for meme resides with the population. For meme is not lost, as long there’s a populace with a common meme, then meme will stay. It’s like a company culture that stays with a company even when it’s entire original staff has been (slowly) replaced.

The changes that arise also bring consequences into the populace, like the shifting sand inside that muddy water, the consolidation process brings an opportunity for an Individual to shift his fate. What is commonly called as Vertical Mobility.

Yet Vertical Mobility is a fickle thing. Stories abound about how a “self-made” man creates wealth, bring his family, his gene, to an elevated class, only to have a stupid/silly/whatever grandson blow it all away and put their gene back to the lower class, on which, since the grandson live in a state with more degree consolidation that his grandfathers had, escaping that lower class would be more difficult.

We can see that consolidation is change, with that, opportunity and threats, and thus it is imperative for an individual to position himself properly so that his gene can stay in an elevated, preferably, ruling class for all the years to come.

Now, let’s try to look further into this path of consolidation and how, we, as an individual, should respond to this trend.