Is life order or chaos?

Is life a form that represents higher or lower entropy?
If it is a form of lower entropy, then where has entropy had been/has been/is being increase to counteract life’s lower entropy and satisfy the 3rd law of thermodynamics?


Currency and Asset

Was writing a response to this question:
Then I thought that I might well put this into a blog post.

The vast majority of wealth in the world is purely subjective, a $1 million house is only worth $1 million as long as people is still valuing it that much. 
The difference between gold and other assets is the magnitude in difference between “intrinsic” and perceived value. 

A rare painting is very expensive during peace time, when people have the resource to contemplate attributing so much money to essentially paper and oil. But if, let’s say, a crisis such as war came, then the perceive value of a painting quickly diminish and people will value it as what it is, oil on paper. We can state that the magnitude of difference between intrinsic and perceive value for rare painting is enourmous.
Property might have less diferential in intrinsic and perceive value, but there’s still a differential. Even cash has a diferential between intrinsic and perceived value. If a government collapse, then its currency will likely to lose its value, eliminating the so called “wealth” of people who had relied on the subjective perceived value of that currency.
The differential between intrinsic and perceived value is more readily apparent during crisis such as war and when common sense scoffs at how ridiculously expensive an object is.
So, in essence, all non-gold non-currency wealth are worthless, because they have been paid for. They have been paid for with currency, and the seller holds the “real” wealth in currency, assuming the seller is willing to keep the currency he/she has as is. 
Very unlikely since people typically dislike holding too much cash, preferring other asset, and thus to use the currency to  buy another asset using. And then that currency again move hand. 
As currency moves hand, it enables the purchase of assets. The same $1 million, can enable the purchase of $1 billion “worth” of asset.

The speed at currency change hands is called velocity. The higher velocity, the more asset a country or its citizen can buy while minimizing creation of new money (inflation).

What enables velocity? Productivity. The more productive a country is, the faster can they make purchases with the same amount lf currency, the faster they can grow their wealth, while minimizing inflation.

Too Much Money

The negative interest rate is clear indicator that the world has an excess of capital. And an excess of capital that is so beyond existing aggregate demand that the only solution is for capital to die via negative interest rate.

It’s interesting that we finally reach a situation where the world needs less money to meet humanity’s needs.

There are 6 pressures that will define our world in the next 50 years:
– man’s envy. It’s unrealistic for everyone to have the lifestyle of the 0.01%, but everybody wants it.
– nature’s capacity to provide the lifestyle man desire. Nature would be strained if all 6 billion people want to consume 1000kg of magnesium in their cars, ostrich leather in their bags, and 40,000 gallons of water for their swimming pool. Money is a poor method to limit consumption because mother nature cannot speak and negotiate the base price of extracting resource from nature.
– automation, AI, and robotics capacity to replace more and more cognitive jobs. We might end with a world where the only job that require a human being is… nothing
– capital’s need to multiply. All capital owner seeks to grow their capital. They will employe people to find new markets or create new markets by converting “desires” into “needs”. Capital will pour into any growth geography or segments or industries that’s deemed safe. In the past, when capital cannot find new avenues of growth (mostly due to technology limitations), war happens. Then war not only destroys existing assets, allowing capital room to grow, but also resulted in technologies (e.g. Aircraft, radio telecommunication) that allow capital to enter new markets
– man pettiness, that misguided sense of fairness that is at the root of rejection to social programs to extend the benefits of civilization to the poor. That very US Republican Conservative attitude of social darwinism, “the poor is poor because they are lazy, stupid, etc; thus, let them suffer”, the attitude that allows public schools in affluent neighborhood to be much better resource than public school in non-affluent neighborhood.
– anarchist. mad mens who find themselves irrelevant in the current world order and seek to create and propagate their own imaginary society. ISIS is an example of this. The fact that many ISIS members comes from the west show that the problem is psychological, not geographical.

So we have men who seeks to have what other have and capital that is very happy to serve that appetite, and the reality of nature’s limitation and that fewer man is actually needed to do a job, and the ambivalence of providing money (power) to those who doesn’t work. And a fringe elements who just want to see the world burn.

So we could end up with a world where:
a. Capital is further concentrated to the 0.0000001%, and 99% of people who are basically jobless and either live on welfare or on poverty. Elysium
b. Man no longer need to work and focus on expanding their knowledge and are “paid” to learn and contributes new knowledge. Startrek.

Layman’s theory on light and particle

We are all light

Gravity slows us down to matter

Everything in the universe emit wave or is wave. Visible light is wave, infrared is wave, atom vibrate move & rotate.

What if particles are just “condensed” wave? Wait, if we remember E=mc2, then we know all matter is “condensed” light wave

Condensed by what?


How does gravity condensed wave?

Or is gravity an illusion and that it’s not gravity that condense light to matter

But it’s the Higgs Field that condense light to matter. Than in the presence of Higgs Field, energy is condensed to a level it becomes matter.

And that gravity, gravity is just an effect that happens where some parts of universe is compacted into matter and some not, and some part of universe has different degrees of particle density.

So gravity is like what happens if you an imaginary planar field, and you put a ball of condensed wave in this planar field, a curvature happens since the ball presses down on the planar field. If you stand near enough to the ball, you could be within that depression caused by the ball, and if you are within that depression, you experience gravity.

How does the condensation happen?

Matter, atoms, has or is in a lower energy state than light. If atoms were heated, it would turn physical state into less solid forms. Given sufficient energy, and atom would become light.

So perhaps the difference between atoms and light is the energy state they are in. Light is in hyper excited state, and atoms is a much less excited state.

Matter’s energy state has been lowered by something that it reaches such low energy state that matters becomes matter.

Perhaps like a net slows down a tennis ball, the Higgs fields slows the energy state of light to such an extreme, that it now has matter’s energy state and thus become or is matter.

And back to gravity, perhaps gravity is the side effect of light hitting Higgs field and slowed down to become matter.

Is this continuous? Gravity is continuous. Is gravity exist only when the light particle is transformed to matter?

Are we continuously being in a state of being converted from light to matter by the Higgs field?

Is all matter in the universe continuously experiencing gravity because it continuously the experience the side effect of it being continuously from light to matter?

Everything in universe is light.

Visible light is light, matter is light.

Something slows light to a point where it becomes matter.

What and how

Bangga Tanpa Subsidi

Bangga Tanpa Subsidi

Kebijakan jokowi menaikan harga BBM pada 18 November 2014 banyak menuai protes, tak terkecuali di milis ini.

Satu hal yang menarik dari pihak yang pro dan kontra terhadap kebijakan tersebut adalah besarnya uang Negara yang dihemat selama periode kebijakan tersebut.

Ada angka yang menyebutkan Rp 22 trilyun. Saya rasa cukup logis karena dari tahun ke tahun nilai subsidi tersebut Rp 200 trilyun lebih.

Jadi saat saya mendengar argument “loh, harga minyak dunia diturunkan, subsidi malah dihapus”, saya melihat suatu logika yang sangat salah, harusnya orang berpikir begini “wah, harga minyak dunia turun aja subsidi hemat Rp 22 trilyun, gimana kalau stabil atau naik”.

Tapi sayang, demi sikap keukeuh, ga rela, dengan presiden yang terpilih secara konstitusional, semua pola pikir objektif logis hilang. Kapasitas otak yang ada dishort-circuit oleh ketidakrelaan.

Kembali ke Rp 22 trilyun tadi, taruhlah saya salah besar soal angkanya, taruhlah “hanya” Rp 15 trilyun untuk 1.5 bulan.

Bayangkan betapa banyak rumah sakit, sekolah, pelabuhan, jalan tol, rel kereta api, pembangkit tenaga listrik yang bisa dihemat dengan 120 trilyun (12 / 1.5 x 15 trilyun) ?

Betapa bodohnya kita sebagai bangsa menyerahkan 120 trilyun (setiap tahun!) itu ke pengusaha-pengusaha minyak yang notabene hanya segelintir orang dibandingkan rakyat indonesia yang 240 juta orang ini?

Lantas uang tambahan Rp 120 trilyun itu akan dipakai untuk apa oleh segelintir jaringan pengusaha minyak tersebut? Dipakai untuk konsumsi sehingga kembali ke sistem ekonomi? Atau mungkin malah dipakai membayar anggota DPR, pemerintah, dan “aktivis” untuk melanggengkan perampokan Negara yang disebut “subsidi bbm”?

Saya tidak habis pikir dengan sikap orang-orang yang menolak kenaikan harga bbm dengan alasan ekonomi “rakyat”

Rakyat yang mana? Rakyat yang kesempatannya untuk dapat sekolah, rumah, jalan, dan sebagainya tadi menguap dalam bentuk premium?

Rakyat yang bisa dapat pekerjaan apabila Rp 120 trilyun tadi diinvestasikan pemerintah untuk infrastruktur?

Atau rakyat yang sanggup beli Avanza tapi masih minta disubsidi?

Rakyat yang katanya “menderita karena kenaikan harga”? Lah, memang berapa inflasi naik kemarin?

Apakah sudah ada diskusi mengenai kenaikan inflasi akibat bbm vs pertumbuhan ekonomi karena uang subsidi tadi masuk kembali ke ekonomi Indonesia?

Berapa persen kah BBM terhadap belanja rumah tangga? 10%? 5%? Demi membela 5% ekonomi individu kita, kita rela rusak Negara ini? Kita rela biarkan Negara ini dirampok setiap hari selama puluhan tahun?

Saya heran dengan sikap egois bangsa kita.

Ribut menyumpahi Negara lain yang “Individualistis”

Tapi realitanya tidak sedikit rakyat Negara ini yang rela mengorbankan kepentingan bangsa dan Negara demi kepentingan pribadi.

Ribut tentang kenaikan bbm yang mempengaruhi ekonomi keluarga atau dirinya sekian persen tapi tidak mau berpikir tentang Bangsanya.

Pola pikir kerdil yang berfokus pada “saya” dan bukan “Nation”

Saya heran dengan sikap manja bangsa kita.

Semua yang protes tentang subsidi BBM, kemungkinan besar sudah dewasa. Mungkin sudah bekerja, sudah menikah, sudah punya anak.

Lah koq tidak punya malu? Tidak punya malu masih mengharapkan hidup disubsidi? Disubsidi oleh Negara pula.

Negara yang seharusnya menerima Net Present Value dari anak-anaknya, sekarang malah berhadapan dengan anak-anak durhaka yang setiap hari menuntut “mana Subsidi BBM saya? Mana subsidi listrik saya? Mana subsidi gas saya?”

Bukankah impian kita, kebanggaan kita, sebagai orangtua adalah membuat anak kita menjadi mandiri? Saat dia besar, dia menjadi penakluk dunia? Betapa hancurnya hati kita, apabila anak kita sudah dewasa dan setiap hari dia merengek-rengek datang ke rumah orang tua minta subsidi? Betapa malunya kita, apabila anak kita tumbuh besar bukan untuk menjadi dewasa tetapi tetap menjadi kanak-kanak?

Ibu Pertiwi menangis, anak-anaknya datang bukan membawa persembahan, bukan prestasi, bukan sumbangsih,

Tapi datang dengan tuntutan demi tuntutan.

“IBU KAYA, ibu bayar BBM kami, ibu bayar listrik kami, ibu bayar gas kami”

Apakah anda dengar? Apakah anda pahami? Ibu pertiwi menangis, melihat putra-putrinya setiap hari cuma bisa meminta subsidi

Dan tanpa malu, tanpa malu, masih ada pengecut-pengecut yang bahkan berkata begini “rakyat Indonesia belum waktunya hidup tanpa subsidi”

Pikir! Bagaimana harga diri bangsa kita tidak diinjak-injak bangsa lain? Kita sendiri yang menginjak-injak harga diri kita. Apa ini sikap yang kita mau contohkan ke anak-anak kita? Bagaimana generasi mendatang bisa percaya mereka mandiri kalau setiap hari mereka lihat orangtuanya merengek-rengek?

Kapan Jepang punya waktu hidup dengan subsidi? Kapan Taiwan punya waktu hidup dengan subsidi? Kapan Singapura punya waktu hidup dengan subsidi? Tidak satu hari pun Tuhan beri Negara-negara tadi ruang nafas untuk bisa punya subsidi.

Tapi saat Negara-negara tadi menjadi maju, bukannya belajar, bukannya malu dengan diri sendiri, malu dengan betapa kita sia-siakan harta bangsa ini; kita malah menuntut “kami ga bisa hidup tanpa subsidi” sambil mungkin berkata “Jepang, Taiwan, Singapura yang hisap diri kita”.

Yah goblok aja kalau Negara yang punya sumberdaya mau-mauan dihisap oleh Negara yang tidak punya sumberdaya.

Sudah waktunya STOP minta subsidi.

Ngaca keluar, lihat kedalam.

Dunia maju terus. Mau kita jadi bangsa manja atau mandiri. Dunia maju terus.

Waktunya kita punya sikap baru.

Sikap bangga dengan kemandirian, bangga hidup tanpa subsidi.

Mau memberi Net Present Value buat Negara ini.

Malu minta satu perak pun dari Ibu Pertiwi.

Buang semua subsidi BBM, subsidi listrik, subsidi gas.

Kalau Negara lain bisa hidup tanpa subsidi, kenapa kita tidak bisa? Apa kita kalah dengan Jepang? Kalah dengan Taiwan? Kalah dengan Singapura?

Waktunya kita bangun dan sadari

Pola pikir “kami harus disubsidi” itu egois, menghisap Negara demi kepentingan diri sendiri

Pola pikir “kami belum siap kalau tidak disubsidi” itu memalukan, dimana harkat dan martabat kita dibanding bangsa-bangsa yang hidup tanpa subsidi dari bangsa mereka lahir?

Waktunya pola pikir baru, Bangga Tanpa Subsidi

2012 Series 008 – Teamwork


Why put stewardship in teamwork?

Because before business model, before strategy, before tactics, when people gather together to work, they need to agree on the principle of stewardship so that the organization they work for can have a significant and sustained impact.


Stewardship leads to sustained impact

Recently (July 2012), the world financial community was rock by news massive trading losses in JP Morgan. The immediate cause of the billions dollar lost is several trades done by few traders.

But a financial institution tottering under a loss cause by a trader is nothing new, Barings Bank collapse in 1995 due to trade loss by a “rouge” trader, and the insurance company AIG also faced trading related loss in 2008.

The real cause of the above example is not the “rogue” trader, the real cause is the incentive structure, monitoring, and check and balance within the organization that is at fault. In almost all the trading loss cases, the failure to say “stop” is the intermediate cause.

Now, what is the root cause of the failure to say “stop”? Continue reading

2012 Series 007 – Growth

Ambition x Humility = Growth

Without ambition, there’s no impetus for growth.

But without humility, growth is not sustained.

Recent history reveals many companies that are thought to be successful, but due to what is arguably, a lack of humbled ambition, these companies went bust, where these bankrupt companies stop being useful for their stakeholders.

For an organization to be useful for its stakeholders, the organization needs sustained growth.

Sustained growth comes from ambition and humility.

“High performance organization” are crafted and sustained by leaders with strong ambition and yet possessing many degrees of humility in greater quantity.

“Low performance organization” have leaders that are strong or weak in ambition yet possesing only superficial humility.

In the context of value creating organization, where organization is nothing more than a group of people, it’s important to speak about “value creating people”

  1. Humility

There are several layers of humility; the acquisition of each in greater quantity will increase the sustainability of growth.

  1. Superficial humility

Continue reading